Understanding Substack’s Three Growth Stages

Growth on Substack is easier to track than you think. In May of 2024, I started investigating Substack. I had heard from peers that Substack was growing and that I should build a presence there.

For those that aren’t familiar with Substack, it’s a newsletter site that has a social component built on top of it.  From a functionality perspective, it’s sort of a mish-mash of a newsletter provider like MailChimp, plus a social media platform like X.

Which intrigued me.  For years I had written a newsletter, but I rarely received feedback from subscribers. This was very frustrating and honestly the lack of feedback on the content I created made it very difficult to stay committed to the newsletter. So when I learned that Substack had a social element built on top of it, I was very interested in learning more.

Is it Possible to Actually Make Money on Substack?

This is what I really wanted to know. If I was going to commit to Substack, I wanted to know that I could eventually make enough money to justify my time there.

I started studying successful writers on Substack to see what their experiences were. Surprisingly, I found that almost every successful writer on Substack followed a very similar pattern of growth.  In fact, the typical successful writer on Substack followed three stages of growth.

The first stage of growth typically lasts 6-12 months.  The writer will average 0-3 new subscribers a day. Typically, writers in the first stage of growth will have 0-5 paid subscribers.

The second stage of growth typically lasts 3-6 months, or half as long as the first stage. The writer will average 4-10 new subscribers a day in the second stage. Writers in the second stage typically have 0-10 paid subscribers.

The third stage of growth is called the ‘hockey stick’. This is where growth accelerates rapidly. The number of free subscribers spikes dramatically. In addition, the number of paid subscribers takes off. In fact, most writers typically have few, if any, paid subscribers until hitting the third stage.

Here’s a graph from one writer that shows a very typical growth trajectory for a successful writer on Substack:

You can see on the graph, around May 19th, Anna moves into the second stage.  Then around July 1st is when she moves into the third stage of growth.

Social Media Growth is Not Linear

One of the biggest problems with building a presence on a social media site is attempting to predict future growth. Growth on most social media sites is not linear, in fact it’s usually anything but. Often, growth will be slow if non-existent, then one day, inexplicably, growth will begin and will typically increase over time. But there are usually few if any ‘warning signs’ before the growth kicks in. As a result, users will often quit using a site because they can’t gain any traction after a few months.

While growth on Substack isn’t linear, it is a bit easier to anticipate. The end point of the first stage of growth is the key. The amount of time spent in the second stage of growth is typically half the amount of time spent in the first stage of growth.

For instance, if it takes a writer 14 months to move from the first to second stage of growth, it should take that same writer around seven additional months to move to the third stage of growth.

In talking to successful Substack writers, they all gave me the same advice: Stick with it. They all agreed that the first stage of growth was a ‘slog’, and if you can make it through the first stage, you will be fine.

Which is exactly what I needed to hear. Otherwise, I would have stopped writing at Substack after about 3 months. I am now entering my seventh month writing on Subtack, and it just now feels like I am starting to get some traction.

So if you want to build a presence on Substack, here’s some advice:

• Commit to writing for at least 6 months.  A full year is better. From my research and personal experience, most writers take 6-12 months on Substack before they begin to see noticeable growth.
• Spend at least half your time engaging with other Substack users. If you are serious about building a presence on Substack, you must engage with other users. Comment on their Notes, Like their issues when they share them. You have to engage with others if you want them to return the favor.
• Expect to invest 12-18 months before you realize any significant income from subscriptions. From my research, most Substack writers in the third stage of growth make $500-$1,500 a month from subscriptions. If you can supplement that income with 2-3 other streams, Substack can definitely be worth your time.

And if you are curious, you can subscribe to Backstage Pass and follow along with my progress. I give an update in the first issue of every month on my growth on Substack.